U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports could hit a record 3.3 million barrels per day this quarter, analysts said, as European imports of U.S. crude offset a drop in Russian crude under sanctions. . U.S. crude exports have increased over the past three months as 180 million barrels of oil released from the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve flooded the domestic market.
Exports to Europe are expected to average 1.4 million bpd this quarter, up about 30% from a year earlier, while exports to Asia are expected to fall below 1 million bpd, according to energy data firm kpler.
The increase in purchases by European buyers outweighed the impact of the decline in purchases by Asian countries. Asian countries have been buying Russian crude at deep discounts.
Rystad energy analysts noted that tight U.S. refining capacity also boosted exports. U.S. refining capacity has fallen by nearly 1 million barrels per day since 2020.
“It is not surprising that government intervention to support crude supply has led to an increase in exports,” said Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy.
Rystad added that exports from the Port of Houston have also grown since the third quarter of last year, though they are still below pre-pandemic levels.
Rystad also forecasts that crude oil exports will continue to grow in the first three months of 2023, approaching 4 million bpd.