On March 23, CICC pointed out that looking forward, we think it is relatively certain that the end of the Fed’s interest rate hike is approaching (Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current bank problems will cause credit crunch, which will also play a role in growth and inflation. Inhibitory effect),
However, the path of interest rate cuts is still highly variable, depending on the interpretation of inflation and current financial system risks.
Excessive interest rate cut expectations actually originally implied that the banking system may still face risks in the future.
This also means that unless systemic risks further escalate, the 10-year U.S. bond rate has relatively limited room for further decline at the current position.