On April 17th, Minmetals Futures stated that overseas, risk events in the US banking industry and inflation data have fallen, and the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end.
On the domestic front, the PMI in March showed that the economy is recovering well, and the demand for social financing is strong, but the expansion of the M1-M2 scissors gap shows that the degree of currency activation is not high.
In the first quarter, the central bank’s monetary policy routine is more optimistic about the economy than in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the subsequent loosening of monetary policy will weaken, and more will turn to loose credit.
Currently in the period of intensive disclosure of financial reports of listed companies, corporate earnings will confirm the low point in the fourth quarter report, and a sharp rebound in the first quarter report. The stock index is expected to restart the upward trend driven by performance.