The latest research report of Zhongtai Securities pointed out that we cannot accurately predict the final interpretation of the debt ceiling crisis in the United States, but in any case, the debt ceiling must be resolved in the end. This definite result will also bring the risk of periodic liquidity tightening .
Drawing on the experience of the US debt ceiling period in 2011 and 2013, it will take about 2-4 months for the TGA account to recover to the TGA account level when the debt ceiling was hit from the date of raising or suspending the debt ceiling.
During this period of time, it may continue to impact the liquidity of the US dollar and have a certain impact on the market.
For risk assets, the tightening of dollar liquidity may further curb risk appetite, increasing market volatility and pressure on risk asset valuation adjustments, especially the negative impact on high-valued sectors will intensify.