On May 12, a Reuters poll showed that U.S. Treasury yields will rise sharply in the coming month. The survey also showed that respondents were divided on whether the risk of a U.S. debt default was higher or the same as in the previous standoff over the debt ceiling.
Half of the respondents said the risk of default was higher this time around than with previous debt-ceiling brinkmanship.
However, analysts warn that the current situation could be even more dangerous due to widening political divisions. U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are expected to rise by about 20 and 10 basis points, respectively, in the coming month.
Asked what range the 10-year Treasury yield (currently at 3.38%) will trade in over the next month, the median answer was 3.30%-3.60%.