On Thursday (June 30), the EURUSD opened at 1.0440 and closed at 1.0442 yesterday. As of now, the highest has touched 1.0447 and the lowest has been 1.0435. Temporarily reported 1.0438, down 0.04%. The British pound was temporarily reported at 1.2192, an increase of 0.07%; the Canadian dollar was temporarily reported at 0.7753, an increase of 0.02%.
The euro was last down 0.74% at $1.044. The European Central Bank is widely expected to follow its global peers in raising interest rates for the first time in a decade in July, as soaring inflation cools, though economists are divided on the magnitude of the hike. That makes investors nervous. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that the pre-pandemic era of ultra-low inflation was unlikely to return and that the central bank needed to adapt to sharply higher price growth expectations.
Lagarde: We have been, are and will likely continue to suffer from energy problems, and this is not Europe’s own problem. But on the other hand, despite inflation and supply chain problems, Europe is also in a state of economic recovery, including strong indicators such as household deposits. In the face of uncertainty, the ECB will initially adopt an “incremental” strategy, but as the situation becomes clear, subsequent policies will be more selective.
Europe and the United States: EURUSD
The euro continued to fall after the opening of the Asian market yesterday. During the New York session, the decline was expanded under the pressure of negative factors. The daily line closed at the upper shadow line. From the closing point of view, the bearish momentum continued to increase. At present, the bottom is near the former low support area, breaking down. We can continue later. From the perspective of 4H, Bollinger’s middle track turns down, and the MACD runs near the zero axis. The main resistance above the day is 1.0480, the second resistance is 1.0520-30, and the lower support is 1.0390, 1.0340-50, and it remains short-term below the first resistance. It is expected to continue testing the first support zone.
US and Japan: USDJPY
The U.S. and Japan fell back to the top of the first support yesterday and the bulls are still there. During the New York session, it touched the second resistance and was under pressure. The daily line closed at the upper and lower shadow lines. The small Yang line is now facing the previous high resistance test again. After breaking through, the upward space can be opened. From the 4H point of view, Bollinger’s middle rail is on the upper side, and the MACD runs above the zero axis. The main support below the day is 136.10-20, the second support is 135.70, and the upper resistance is 136.90-137.00, 137.30-40. If it remains above the first support, the short-term is expected to be back tested for the second time. The first resistance, beware of repeated shocks.