The minutes of the June monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be held in the market this week, and market investors will pay close attention for clues on monetary policy in the future. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia will also announce its interest rate decision, while the Bank of England will have speeches from several officials and economists.
In terms of economic data, this week there will be China’s June CPI and PPI data, the United States’ June non-farm payrolls and unemployment data, and the euro zone’s PPI data.
It should also be noted that due to the “Independence Day” holiday in the United States, the US stock market will be closed for one day this Monday (July 4), and the Brent crude oil futures contract trading under ICE will end at 1:30 the next day Beijing time ahead of schedule. , CME’s precious metals, U.S. crude oil contract trading ended at 2:30 Beijing time the next day.
【Review of the past—overnight market review】
Global bond market: Last week, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds fell further across the board. On July 1, the yields of U.S. 1Y, 2Y , 5Y and 10Y Treasury bonds fell by 4bp, 20bp, 30bp, and 25bp respectively from last week’s closing price. .
Global currency markets: The safe-haven dollar rose 0.36% to 105.12 on Friday, just below the 20-year high of 105.79 hit on June 15; the euro fell 0.56% to $ 1.0424; the pound hit a two-week low, after official data showed that Britain’s current account deficit in the first quarter of this year was the largest since records began in 1955.
Global gold market: gold futures fell 0.3% to close at $1,801.50 an ounce, the lowest closing price since February. In Friday’s session, the futures price fell as low as $1,783.40; silver futures for September delivery fell 3.4% to close at $19.667 an ounce, the lowest closing price since July 2020.
International oil market: London Brent crude futures settled up 2.4% at $111.63 a barrel. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.5% to close at $108.43 a barrel; U.S. gold futures settled down 0.3% at $1,801.5.
A shares: Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to close at 3387.64 points, rising for five consecutive weeks; the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.28% to close at 12860.36 points, rising for five consecutive weeks.
Taiwan stocks: Last Friday, the Taiwan Weighted Index fell 3.26% to 14,343.08 points, falling for four consecutive days and a weekly decline of 3.12%, marking a four-week decline.
Hong Kong stocks: Markets were closed last Friday for a holiday.
European stocks: On Friday, European stocks closed mixed, with Germany’s DAX30 up 0.25%, Britain’s FTSE 100 down 0.02%, France’s CAC40 up 0.14%, and the Eurostoxx 50 fell 0.17%.
US stocks: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05% to 31097.26 points; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.90% to 11127.85 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.06% to 3825.33 points.
Cryptocurrency: The price of Bitcoin ( BitfinexUSD ) fell 38% in a single month, the worst monthly performance on record; the second largest cryptocurrency ETH/USD also fell 47% in a single month.
【Heavyweight – Market News】
Inflation in 19 euro zone countries hit a record 8.6%, a 25-year high
The euro zone’s annual inflation rate in June already surpassed May’s 8.1 percent, the highest level since records began in 1997, the latest data from Eurostat showed on Friday. Among them, energy prices soared 41.9%, and food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose 8.9%, all higher than the previous month’s record. Inflation in the euro zone has been hitting records every month since last year. According to the analysis of the report, the cost of living of the 343 million people in the euro area is getting higher and higher due to the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global energy supply. In response to soaring consumer prices, the European Central Bank (ECB) plans to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years this month and again in September.
Nord Stream Gas Pipeline Announces Temporary Shutdown of Two Gas Pipeline Branches
The Beixi Natural Gas Pipeline Company recently issued a notice saying that from July 11 to 21, the two branch lines of the “Beixi-1” natural gas pipeline operated by the company will be temporarily closed for routine maintenance. Affected by the news of the temporary closure, the gas supply of the “Beixi-1” natural gas pipeline may drop to 1.3 billion cubic meters in July, a drop of nearly 60% compared with June. Data show that the gas supply to Europe through the pipeline was 5.4 billion cubic meters in May and 3.2 billion cubic meters in June. Analysts said the move would exacerbate the recent shortage of natural gas in the European market.
Monkeypox outbreak attracts attention, and Europe may become the epicenter of the epidemic
Concerns about the monkeypox outbreak have resurfaced in recent days. Among them, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 460 confirmed cases of monkeypox have been detected in the United States so far. But experts say the number must be an underestimate because many of those who may have been infected have not yet had the opportunity to be tested. U.S. infectious disease experts and public health advocates have warned that the current response to monkeypox is “bureaucratic” and “slow,” meaning the U.S. may not be able to contain the outbreak. In addition, WHO Regional Director for Europe Kruger said on July 1 that since mid-May, monkeypox cases reported in the WHO European Region accounted for nearly 90% of all laboratory-confirmed and globally reported cases.
Massive flight cancellations over Independence Day holiday weekend
Recently, a large number of flights in the United States have been cancelled or delayed due to the shortage of staff at the Federal Aviation Administration. According to a report by flight tracking data company FlightAware, as of 12:00 EST on July 2, 595 flights in the United States had been cancelled that day, and 2,456 flights in and out of the United States had been delayed. AAA expects a lot of tourist travel over the July 4 Independence Day holiday weekend; 47.9 million people will travel from the 1st to the 4th, of which about 3.55 million are expected to travel by air.
Incremental funding is coming! ETF interconnection officially opened, 87 products included
The high-profile mainland-Hong Kong ETF interconnection officially opened on Monday (July 4), allowing investors from both places to invest in ETF products in each other’s markets across borders. According to the latest announcements of major exchanges, the first batch of ETF products included in the interconnection mechanism is a total of 87. Among them, mainland investors can buy 4 Hong Kong stock ETFs through the southbound Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the southbound Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Hong Kong investors can Buy 83 A-share ETFs through Northbound Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
[Voice – Views of Investment Banking Institutions]
JPMorgan: Downgrades U.S. GDP forecast to “very close” to a recession. Most of the U.S. data released last week was weak, most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The bank lowered its U.S. second-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2.5% previously and lowered its third-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2%
Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University known as “Dr. Doom”: The United States is heading for a severe recession, and this crisis could lead to a further 50% drop in the stock market. Any rebound is a “dead cat rebound” “. The U.S. has “good reason to worry” about an impending recession, as the U.S. economy is now characterizing the stagflation crisis of the 1970s and recession of 2008.