On March 16th, Guotai Junan Futures released a research report saying that last night, oil prices in the internal and external markets began to plummet the most this year, continuing the downward trend of shocks. Among them, WTI completely missed the $70/barrel mark, and the main SC 05 contract also fell by more than 5%.
On the whole, after experiencing the stress test of the SVB event last Friday, overseas markets have become extremely sensitive to interest rate hikes. Superimposed on multiple overseas risk event warnings such as Credit Suisse within the day, major assets in the night market fell again.
We maintain our previous judgment unchanged, that is, under the spread of risk aversion in overseas markets, we originally predicted that the systemic downside risks that are more likely to appear in the second quarter may be brought forward to start trading in mid-to-late March.
In this case, all previous judgments on oil prices based on short-term supply and demand will be invalidated, and crude oil will start to fall in resonance with major assets.
Among them, in the first half of the year, under extreme circumstances, both Brent and WTI may fall below 60 USD/barrel, and SC may fall below 480 Yuan/barrel.