On April 10, the U.S. labor market cooled down but was still relatively strong. Employment growth was in line with expectations, the unemployment rate fell slightly, and the month-on-month growth rate of wages was still relatively high.
In terms of breakdown, the growth of non-agricultural employment in the United States in March was mainly driven by the growth of the leisure and hotel industry, government departments, professional and business services, and health care services.
However, it should be noted that in the future, the liquidity pressure of the banking industry may lead to further tightening of credit, and the employment demand of enterprises may accelerate downward.
We expect that under the baseline scenario, the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates after raising interest rates by 25bps in May.