On April 13, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting mentioned that the Fed staff’s forecast for the US economy showed that the real GDP growth of the US this year slowed down, and the labor market also softened.
Given their assessment of the potential economic impact of recent banking developments, Fed staff forecasts at their March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a recovery in the next two years.
Real GDP growth is projected to remain below staff’s estimate of potential output growth in 2024, and GDP growth is then projected to be above potential in 2025.
Resource utilization expectations for both product and labor markets were much lower than expected in January.