On April 21, strategists including Societe Generale Subadra Rajappa said in a report that if the U.S. Treasury Department’s tax revenue for the rest of April is around 50% of 2022 levels, then the U.S. Treasury Department is more likely to close at some point in June. time to exhaust its borrowing capacity.
Societe Generale still expects the U.S. Treasury to exhaust its borrowing capacity between late July and early August, but that forecast is subject to uncertainty if tax revenue falls well short of current expectations.
Societe Generale said the forecast was based on assumptions about tax revenues and the size of borrowing available under extraordinary measures for the remainder of April.