On May 11, CICC pointed out that the U.S. CPI data released yesterday showed strong stickiness, but the April inflation data will support the Fed’s suspension of interest rate hikes in June, but it does not support interest rate cuts within the year.
In addition, the impact of the US banking turmoil remains to be seen. Although the Bank of America Senior Managers Survey (SLOOS) released this week showed further tightening of bank credit standards, we have yet to see signs of a significant contraction in credit in the “hard data”. If the effect of banks’ “tight credit” is not obvious, the Fed There is no need for rate cuts either.
Therefore, we maintain our previous judgment that after the epidemic, the center of inflation in the United States has risen, and interest rates may stay at a high level for a long time.