On May 17, Deutsche Bank stated that aggressive interest rate hikes will cause the U.S. bond yield to invert, causing the U.S. economy to fall into a recession with a certain lag, rather than a soft landing.
Right now, nearly all leading indicators point to a U.S. recession before the end of the year. One of the key indicators was the inversion of 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in March last year, the last signal that the long recession countdown began.
Considering that U.S. bond yields have been inverted for such a long time, it must have affected future economic activity.