On June 29, a Reuters survey showed that South Korea’s export decline in June may have slowed down, and the trade balance turned into a surplus for the first time in 16 months.
South Korea, a bellwether for global trade, was the first major exporting economy to release monthly trade data, offering clues about the health of world demand.
South Korean exports are expected to have fallen 3.0 percent in June from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 17 economists polled, much slower than the 15.2 percent fall in May.
That would be the smallest year-over-year drop since last October. Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities, said that the trend of South Korea’s exports is expected to gradually improve, with auto exports continuing to be strong and losses in semiconductor exports narrowing.
In the second half of this year, the economic growth rate is likely to rebound sharply. The positive turnaround in South Korea’s exports may offer some hope for a recovery in global export trade.