There are two prerequisites for buying US dollars , which must be clarified first. It has nothing to do with whether to buy US dollars or not.
- China is a country that is forced to exchange foreign exchange. The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar does not mean that the purchasing power of the domestic RMB will increase. At this stage, the RMB is clearly depreciating in China. This does not require any discussion of economics, just look at the rising prices.
- The rate of RMB appreciation will not be too big or too fast.
These two premise are facts that both those who are bullish on buying the dollar and those who are bearish on buying the dollar must accept it, regardless of their position.
Judging from the current exchange rate , the RMB will gradually appreciate externally, while the domestic RMB will continue to depreciate. In the end, the two opposite directions will eventually reach the moment when they are irreconcilable. As for what will happen after that, I cannot predict at my current level.
So the analyst view is that once the renminbi starts to appreciate, that’s when we start buying dollars. To 6.5:1, buy a portion. By 6:1, buy a portion of the dollar. And so on, but the interval doesn’t have to be bounded by 0.5. But I think that by the time of 5.5:1, the dollar should be taken out of the bank to avoid the risk of forced exchange. At the same time, at least enough RMB for daily expenses should be kept in hand for 3-5 years.