In recent days, data on the top 50 funds over the past three months has been collected . The data is as of 12-17, which is last Friday.
Why do we collect and analyze this data? Not to recommend these funds, but to use this data to understand which types of funds have performed better recently, and what has changed in the current market?
Of course, not all of the top 50 funds work. We need to do some filtering. First, we should weed out some of the smaller funds whose net worth has soared due to huge redemptions . Second, to eliminate duplicate funds, namely AC shares. We only look at A shares.
After a preliminary screening, we were left with 30 funds, the best of which rose 32% and the worst 17%.
Among the remaining 30 funds, we divide consumption types into consumption of liquor, new energy, etc., depending on the specific performance
- Liquor consumption
First look at these funds, they all have one characteristic, they belong to the consumer category, or they belong to the food category. More detailed, among these funds, the best performing fund in the recent March is Yinhua Food and Beverage, which rose 23%, the lowest rose 17%.
Have you noticed that while these funds have done well in the last March, they haven’t performed very well in the past. In the last three months, their income has increased by more than ten or twenty times, but in the past six months, only Yinhua Food and Beverage Company has had a positive income. Since last year, the income of the consumption bellwether in Hoi An has remained negative. While others have positive incomes, they are not high.
After reading these funds, we can know that the funds consumed in March, especially catering or liquor, have been rising, which is a change of wind direction. But what we would think is that baijiu has fallen again recently. When will it rise again? This year has had its ups and downs. Do we believe it?
- Small companies and small scale
As shown in the chart below, three of the funds are from Beixin, two from Nord and one from Jinxin. There is another characteristic of these funds. The fund companies are relatively small, the funds themselves are relatively small, which companies have you heard of? Maybe you know there will be more at Nord. Let’s talk about Nordisk’s new fund .
Nord Xinxiang increased by 20% in the most recent March. It has grown nicely in the most recent March, but we should note that it is relatively small at 135 million. From a fund manager ‘s point of view, he has managed funds for a long time, such as Nordisk’s small and medium caps, Nordisk’s flexible allocation, and the income is far lower than the average level of similar funds. Fund managers have not performed well in the past. In addition, the scale of fund companies is relatively small, with a total of 30 hybrid funds with a total size of only 12 billion. We do not recommend choosing funds that are too small in scale and with small companies.
- The company is not small, the fund is small
The third category is that the fund company is not small, but the fund scale is small. Although these funds have done well recently, I don’t recommend them. For example, the Great Wall Quantitative Choice Fund is a quantitative strategy fund. Quantitative strategy funds have done okay at times, but they have been doing better over the past period, but not so well since. While this year’s performance is OK, it’s hard to say how long it will last and whether it will perform well.
Galaxy Sports Entertainment, Investment Promotion and Sports Culture, these two funds fall under the category of sports and sports. First of all, the size of the two funds is small, about 100 million. Second, the theme and sportiness of sports have always been poor. Even if it’s okay now, it’s not appropriate.
Only one Agricultural Bank of China remains. We can take a closer look. The fund’s performance looks good, with its stage performance among the top performers. However, we can spot problems by looking at annual performance. The 20’s were okay, but the ’19s and ’18s were poor. If compared to the average for similar funds, it only had a more pronounced outsized return after June of this year. Such funds are not excellent, only average.
4 new energy related topics
Three of the funds with good growth in March are related to new energy, one is the well-known Qianhai open source utility, and the other two are smart car index funds .