The following is the historical cycle of modern oil:
1.1970s: In 1960, the third world oil-producing countries jointly established OPEC, and successively nationalized oil. During this period, we took advantage of two oil crises to raise oil prices . Once, after the outbreak of the fourth Middle East war, OPEC member countries have proposed price reduction and price increase plans. Second, the regime revolution broke out in Iran first, the Iran-Iraq war broke out, the oil exports of Iran and Iraq were interrupted, and oil prices skyrocketed .
2.1980s to 1990s: Affected by two oil crises, international crude oil demand shrank. Meanwhile, non-OPEC crude producers, led by Russia and Venezuela, responded to high oil prices with new technologies and continued production growth . Crude oil prices began to fall sharply to $25-35, and international oil prices entered a 20-year downturn.
3.Ten-year “Golden Period”: In the 21st century, with the rapid development of emerging economies such as China and India, their demand for crude oil has also shown a trend of rapid growth. International oil prices ushered in a 10-year “golden period” and reached a historical peak of $147 per barrel in July 2008.
4.Oil prices fell in 2014-2016: Iran embargo lifted: Large floating positions were sold after the Iran embargo was lifted within 15 years.
5.The logic of the major rebound in 2017: The world economy’s demand for crude oil has declined, and the current round of oil price decline has stimulated the demand for crude oil in the OECD, and crude oil consumption in the Asia-Pacific region remains strong.