If we want to analyze the futures market, we must first figure out what is futures analysis. Futures market analysis should be divided into three aspects: 1. Market trend analysis, price trend judgment; 2. Fundamental analysis: judging the future price trend by analyzing the value of the commodity itself; 3. Technical analysis: through the market itself analysis to determine price trends.
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fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis is to solve the problem of market direction and medium and long-term trends. Its main basis is the law of value and the law of supply and demand. This analysis method focuses on the implementation of politics, economy, laws and regulations, as well as the production and consumption of commodities, which have direct and indirect effects on the relationship between supply and demand of commodities.
First of all, let’s familiarize ourselves with what is the relationship between supply and demand. Futures trading is a product of the market economy, so its price is affected by the relationship between supply and demand. If the supply exceeds demand, the price will fall, and if the supply is less than the demand, the price will rise. In the futures market, prices are also affected by economic factors. As economic factors change, futures prices will rise and fall. Of course, there are also policy factors. Certain policies and measures formulated by various countries will bring different degrees of factors to market prices. At the same time, changes in seasons will also have an impact on market prices, which is particularly prominent in the agricultural product market.
The influence of psychological factors
The psychological factor we are talking about is the degree of investor confidence in the market, which is what we often call popularity. If most investors are bullish on a commodity, even if there is no good news, the price will rise. If investors are already very optimistic about a commodity, the price will still fall even if there is no bad news. There are also many speculators who will use the psychology of investors to achieve their own goals. They will spread certain news, and then think that they will buy or sell speculatively to make profits.
technical analysis
Through the analysis of the market itself to determine the price trend. Generally, we have three assumptions about this trend theory, they are: 1. Market behavior reflects everything. 2. The price is trending. 3. History will repeat itself. The reason for this is that prices are determined by supply and demand. The price factor of commodities is determined by various reasonable and unreasonable factors. If small changes in prices are ignored, then prices will have a certain trend of change over a period of time.