The current political situation in Britain is turbulent, and the new prime minister has not yet been elected. Internationally, Britain’s economic status has further declined.
According to the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the GDP of India, a former British colony, has surpassed that of the United Kingdom in dollar terms since the fourth quarter of last year. In the first half of this year, India’s advantage over the United Kingdom has been more consolidated.
According to the IMF’s forecast, this year will be the first year when India’s GDP exceeds that of the United Kingdom in dollar terms, and India will also become the fifth largest economy in the world after the United States, China, Japan and Germany.
Britain, which has long been ranked in the top five, will be ranked sixth this year, followed by France, Italy, Canada and South Korea.
According to the agency’s forecast, five years later, India’s economy will be 20% larger than that of Britain.
This is not good news for the current UK. Next Monday, members of the conservative party will elect Boris Johnson’s successor. It is widely believed that foreign secretary truss is expected to defeat former chancellor of the exchequer sunak in the runoff election to become the new British Prime Minister.
However, whoever becomes the new prime minister is faced with a mess: Britain is facing the fastest inflation in 40 years, and there is no sign of easing. The Bank of England believes that inflation may last until 2024. In addition, the market is worried that the UK has the highest recession risk among developed economies.
Britain’s GDP has also stagnated recently. In the second quarter, Britain’s GDP grew by only 1%, and after adjustment, it shrank by 0.1%.
In comparison, India’s economy is expected to grow by more than 7% this year. India’s stock market rebounded strongly this quarter, and its weight rose to the second place in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, second only to China.
In the first quarter of this year, India’s nominal GDP was 854.7 billion US dollars; In the UK, it was only $816 billion.
In addition, the performance of the pound this year is also inferior to that of the Indian rupee. The pound has fallen 8% against the rupee this year.