Futures Special Everbright Futures Comments Today’s main asphalt contracts fell sharply:
1.The U.S. CPI in August announced on Tuesday increased by 8.3% year-on-year. Although it was lower than the previous value of 8.5%, it was higher than the expected value of 8.1%. Therefore, the market believes that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at the September interest rate meeting. Suspense, the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points has also risen sharply, which has caused a chain reaction in the financial market. U.S. stocks have weakened again, the dollar has rebounded rapidly, and commodities have weakened accordingly. Today’s asphalt opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday drop of more than 4%, leading the decline in the energy and chemical sector.
2.From a fundamental point of view, high profits lead to higher production enthusiasm in refineries, obvious competition for market resources, and spot prices are gradually under pressure. Under the condition that the processing profit is stable and improving, the domestic asphalt market is expected to see a double increase in supply and demand in September. However, since last week, the enthusiasm for stocking the asphalt spot contract is not high. The growth rate of demand may not be as fast as the growth rate of supply. It is expected that the price of asphalt disk may remain volatile and weak, and further attention needs to be paid to the recovery progress of demand and the fluctuation of international oil prices.