September 14th news, just last night, after the United States announced the August CPI data that exceeded expectations, investors already believed that the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points this month as a fact, and even began to discuss the possibility of raising interest rates by 100 points. .
Although gold has been maintained above 1700 in the day, but there is no obvious rebound, the highest only touched 1705 US dollars. As of Wednesday afternoon, gold was quoted at $1,703.8 an ounce.
On Tuesday evening, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month in August and 8.3% year-on-year. Economists had expected the U.S. CPI to drop by 0.1% month-on-month in August and increase by 8% year-on-year.
The data also showed that the U.S. core CPI rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from July; a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, a significant increase from July. Economists had expected core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month in August and 6% year-on-year.
Among them, food prices rose by 0.8%, and the prices of food consumed at home rose by 0.7%. Food prices surged 11.4% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase since May 1979.
Economists had previously forecast a 0.1% drop in the CPI. In the 12 months through August, the CPI rose 8.3%, after rising 8.5% in July and jumping 9.1% in June, the largest increase since November 1981.
And U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly rose in August, and core inflation accelerated amid rising rents and healthcare prices, giving the Fed the rationale for a third rate hike of 75 basis points next Wednesday, with investors even starting to speculate about a 100 percent rate hike. basis point.
Fed officials will hold policy meetings next Tuesday and Wednesday. Financial markets have priced in a 75-basis-point rate hike next Wednesday and see a 100-basis-point rate hike likely, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
It’s becoming increasingly clear to market participants that the Fed’s tightening so far has not been enough to cool the economy and bring down inflation,” said Allianz Investment Management senior investment strategist.
“The Fed will almost certainly raise rates aggressively next week, almost certainly by 75 basis points,” said Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
The latest market rate data shows that interest rate contracts now also price in a 35% chance of a surprise 100bps rate hike at the Sept. 20-21 meeting, up from zero the day before the CPI report.
Analysts at Nomura Securities immediately said that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to raise its short-term interest rate by a full 100 basis points at its September policy meeting next week, as upside risks to inflation are becoming a reality.
Nomura forecasts that the Fed will raise the federal funds target rate by 50 basis points at both its November and December meetings. The current interest rate range is 2.25%-2.50%.
The investment bank also said it would raise its forecast for the terminal rate to be reached by February 2023 by 50 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%.