Mortgage rates in the U.S. rose above 6 percent for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
- U.S. stocks fell again, the Nasdaq fell more than 1.4%, and the U.S. bond yield curve inversion intensified
- Mixed economic data, job market recovery continues
- U.S. mortgage rates rise above 6% for first time since 2008 financial crisis
U.S. stocks were weak on Thursday, with all three major stock markets paring gains from the previous day and falling below recent lows. As of the close, the Dow fell 173.07 points, or 0.56%, to 30962.02; the S&P 500 fell 44.69 points, or 1.13%, to 3901.32, the lowest level since July; the Nasdaq fell 167.32 points, or 1.43%, to report 11552.36 points.
Most of the leading technology stocks fell. Microsoft fell 2.71%, Alphabet fell 1.99%, Apple fell 1.89%, Amazon fell 1.77%, Nvidia fell 1.52%, Meta fell 1.27%, Netflix rose 5.02%, Tesla rose 0.38%.
Popular Chinese concept stocks generally weakened, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.82%. Zhihu fell 4.80%, iQiyi fell 3.75%, Pinduoduo fell 2.05%, Bilibili fell 1.57%, NetEase fell 1.43%, Tencent ADR fell 1.25%, Baidu fell 1.13%, and Alibaba fell 0.10%.
New car-making forces have fallen. Ideal Motors fell 3.22%, Xiaopeng Motors fell 3.18%, and Weilai Motors fell 1.96%.
Among the stocks in focus, the share price of Adobe, a US software company, fell 16.79%. Adobe posted its biggest one-day drop since 2010 after agreeing to buy software design startup Figma in a deal worth about $20 billion.
General Electric closed down 1.60%, and fell more than 6% in after-hours trading. The company previously expressed caution about future results, saying the company continues to face supply chain pressures and expects third-quarter cash flow to be flat or slightly better than the second.
U.S. bond yields rose across the board, with the inversion of the yield curve deepening, which some market participants see as a harbinger of a looming recession. The interest rate-sensitive U.S. 2-year Treasury bond rate rose more than 9 basis points on the day to 3.877%, the highest since 2007; the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond yield rose 4.7 basis points to 3.455%.
In addition, the 5-year Treasury and 30-year Treasury yield curves inverted by as much as 20 basis points, the highest level in nearly two decades.
Mixed economic data
U.S. jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week, a sign that business demand for labor remains strong. Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 213,000 in the week ended Sept. 10, Labor Department data showed on Thursday. Other data showed U.S. factory production rose slightly in August, while industrial production, which includes mining and utilities, fell.
The latest data means the Fed is most likely to raise interest rates by 75 points in next week’s interest rate decision, with a 100-point rate hike less likely, according to Bill Adams, chief economist at Commonwealth Bank.
Traders expect the Fed to raise rates next year from the current 2.25%-2.5% level to a peak near 4.5%. Raising interest rates to that level, based on the present-value discount effect, would send shares down about 20% from current levels, Ray Dalio said.
According to the “Fed Watch” of CME Group, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points by September is 80%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 20%; by November, the probability of raising interest rates by 125 basis points is 36% , the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 150 basis points is 53%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 175 basis points is 11%.
U.S. mortgage rates rise above 6%
According to a survey report released by US mortgage agency Freddie Mac, the average US 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate climbed to 6.02% this week, up from 5.89% last week and 2.86% a year ago, close to 14%. levels during the U.S. financial crisis years ago.
Rising mortgage rates are one of the most direct effects of the Fed’s rate hikes. Home prices are still up significantly year-over-year, but the number of sales has fallen for six straight months.
There are now signs that sales momentum will slow further. Homes sold for an average of 0.3 per cent below their asking price in the four weeks ended Sept. 4, according to real estate brokerage Redfin. In the year-and-a-half before that, homes were generally selling for more than asking price. The data also showed that home viewing activity was down 38 per cent from the beginning of the year.
Gold prices and oil prices both fall
Gold fell to its lowest point since April 2020 on expectations the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in raising interest rates. Gold futures for December delivery on COMEX closed down 1.9 percent at $1,677.30 an ounce.
International oil prices fell sharply amid fears of shrinking demand due to an economic recession. WTI October crude oil futures closed down $3.38, or 3.82%, at $85.10 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for November ended down $3.26, or 3.46%, at $90.84 a barrel.