On September 18, Yide Futures Weekly analyzed that the current situation facing the US economy lies in the overheated job market, strong demand and restricted supply chain. In order to achieve the goal of reducing the inflation rate to 2%, it must be achieved through higher interest rates, slower economic growth and weak job market.
Since inflation will strengthen itself due to inflation expectations, if inflation cannot be suppressed in the fourth quarter of this year, the market will bring inflation expectations into 2023, which will be more difficult to suppress inflation. Therefore, financial policies must remain tight for a long time.
Against this background, it is expected that the total demand of the global economy will continue to fall in the future, the pressure on the US stock market will remain, and the yield of 10-year US bonds will be adjusted at a high level.