The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out on September 22 that the Fed’s interest rate meeting in September raised interest rates by 75bps as scheduled. Powell tried to stabilize market sentiment through speeches, but his face was hawkish and the incremental information was limited. He still maintained the position of the JacksonHole meeting, and the market rebounded that day. continued to fall. The hawkish dot plot conveys the Fed’s current tightening stance, and it is expected that it will be difficult to see a policy turn in the short term. The rate hike level this year may be above 4%, and the end point of this round of interest rate hikes may be around 5.0%.
The latest economic forecasts imply the risk of a recession. The Federal Reserve may have to cool inflation through a recession this time around. It is expected that the U.S. economy may fall into a substantial recession in the second half of next year.
It is expected that the US dollar index may rise to around 120, US stocks have not yet bottomed out, and the 10-year US bond yields may fluctuate in the short-term, and there may be a downward trend in the medium and long term.