Exxon Mobil, one of the world’s largest oil companies, forecasts that global oil demand will remain steady—or even increase slightly—by 2050, challenging efforts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century. This projection, highlighted in Exxon’s annual Global Outlook report released Monday, suggests a significant divergence from the goals set by international climate agreements.
According to Exxon, global oil consumption will stay above 100 million barrels per day through 2050, driven primarily by growth in industrial sectors such as plastics manufacturing and heavy transportation. This stands in stark contrast to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) net-zero emissions scenario, which calls for a 75% reduction in demand to 24 million barrels per day by 2050 to keep global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as mandated by the Paris climate accord.
“The IEA, like us, acknowledges that the world is not on a path to achieve these net-zero targets,” stated Chris Birdsall, Exxon’s director of economics and energy, in an interview with Bloomberg News.
While Exxon does predict a decline in global greenhouse gas emissions starting in 2030, driven by the growth of renewable energy sources, it anticipates only a 25% reduction by 2050. These projections align with other industry estimates, including those from OPEC, which predicts oil consumption will reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, and pipeline company Enbridge, which expects demand to peak at 110 million barrels per day.
Birdsall emphasized the critical need for continued investment in fossil fuel projects, warning that a failure to do so could have catastrophic consequences. Exxon’s analysis suggests that without new investments, oil supply could plummet by 70% to just 30 million barrels per day by 2030, potentially triggering a surge in crude oil prices and severe disruptions to the global economy.
Exxon’s forecast is likely to spark criticism from environmentalists and policymakers who argue that immediate and drastic reductions in fossil fuel use are necessary to combat climate change. However, Birdsall defended the Global Outlook report as a “realistic” assessment based on current data and trends, rather than aspirational targets.
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